Feature Article, September 2006

Changes In Store For Chicago’s Retail Market
Vibrancy remains in the market and new projects are still in developers’ plans.
Moderated by Jerrold France, Randall Shearin and Kevin Jeselnik

As it does every year Shopping Center Business and Heartland Real Estate Business held their Chicago Retail Roundtable. This year, Seyfarth Shaw hosted at its boardroom in downtown Chicago. Representatives from more than 20 Chicago-area development, brokerage, financial and legal firms came to discuss the exciting state of retail real estate in the Chicagoland.

Attendees this year were Michael Jaffe, The Jaffe Companies; James Schutter, M&J Wilkow Co.; Frances Spencer, City of Chicago; Jerome Ferstman, Forest City Enterprises; Donna Low Harwood, Gallant Construction; Greg Dorman and Jay Gitles, Seyfarth Shaw; Steve Smith, Leopardo Construction; Camille Julmy, U.S. Equities Realty; Greg Kirsch, Baum Realty Group; James Farrey, NAI Hiffman; Ross Glickman, Urban Retail Properties; Dave Bossy; Mid-America Development Partners; James Turner, LaSalle Bank; Bruce Kaplan, Northern Realty Group; George Redfearn, Tucker Development Corporation; James Kaplan, James Kaplan Companies; Jeff Howard, Inland Real Estate Corporation; Todd Caruso, CB Richard Ellis; Rick Filler, Harlem Irving Companies; Marlon Stone, Katz & Associates; and Ed Zifkin, Zifkin Realty & Development.

SCB: Fran [Spencer], can you tell us about some of the changes that are taking place in Chicago?

James Schutter, Frances Spencer and Jerome Ferstman.

Frances Spencer: One of the most successful projects we’ve seen has been the re-do of the Brickyard — taking that from a very endangered enclosed mall to an open-air center with some new anchors and a real vitality of life. Moving around the city, the next thing was Washington Square, which was on North Avenue and Cicero. That particular development was on land that was a brownfield site, and there was not any new retail out there in over 40 years. Harlem Irving did that project. That’s really spurred a lot of development in that area, because directly to the east a Menards is under construction, and also Chicago’s first Wal-Mart, which will open next week, as well as The Home Depot. Up in Chatham, at 87th and Dan Ryan, that’s been a very good retail area for many years, but now an additional center is going in on what had been industrial land, anchored by Lowe’s [Home Improvement Warehouse]. They are looking for another major anchor. But they are going ahead with that project and that’s going to add another 50 percent of retail to that center. One of the biggest sites that we’ve had for many years has been at 119th and Marshfield Avenue, which is 119th right off I-57; it’s got great visibility. That’s a 50-some acre site now under development finally by Primestore, out of California. Anybody that’s been around Chicago knows of the great residential growth we have going on in the South Loop, and then we have the whole University Village area, which has over 700 condos and townhouses, and all the retail that’s gone in. Now we have Jamba Juice and Coldstone Creamery and different retailers going in there. Sears returned to State Street, and we’ve got Nordstrom’s, Annie Sez, which is the new one, and H&M [downtown]. So, we’re seeing an awful lot of growth across the city. When people ask, ‘What are your hot areas?’ Right now, the Kenwood/Oakwood/Oakland area and Garfield Park are the ones that are really going to see a lot of dynamic change in the near future.

Seyfarth Shaw’s Greg Dorman and Jay Gitles.

Greg Dorman: One of the things that has been asked is how the process has been expedited recently? From a development/developer [standpoint], a lot of my clients are big box developers that self-develop frequently, the whole permit process in the city, the expedited process, has been an absolute godsend. Historically, you were waiting 6 to 9 months for a building permit and it was difficult to try and plan for that length of time.

Frances Spencer: That all started by having the person who was in charge of that department sit down with some developers that were very upset and irritated about it. He came back and started making changes, and that’s continued to this day.

Greg Dorman: It’s been great.

Bruce Kaplan of Northern Realty.

Bruce Kaplan: Fran, I am a big fan of the city, as you know. There has been a lot over the last couple days about the “food desert” study that has come out. There is a market in so many of these underserved areas for a 10,000-square-foot prototype, not a 50,000-square-foot major grocery store, but something that can service the needs of these communities where people don’t have cars and currently have to take three buses and an hour-and-a-half to buy groceries. I guess the analogy would be, a can of peas is 29 cents at Aldi’s and $1.69 in corner stores, it’s just crazy. How can the development community and the retail community work with the city to get this moving quicker?

Frances Spencer: I think probably if you will bring prospective tenants that are interested in that that are saying, for some reason, ‘Oh, the area is not quite ready yet,’ or ‘I’m afraid to do it,’ or ‘It’s going to cost too much.’ If we can get the people to come and look at it, sit down and meet with us, and see the different programs that we can put together that can take that ‘What if?’ and make it into a reality. We are certainly very open to doing whatever it takes, whatever creative, new type of way. If anyone has a tenant like that, we will certainly work with them, because once they get it, they get it. Target gets it now. They have plans for a lot of stores in Chicago. Once we really have a chance to sit down one-on-one with them, show them the different programs that can apply in the different areas, once they get it, then we can go ahead. But that’s what we need, someone to bring them to us. We’ve done the outreach as you know, with the grocery expo and following up with those people. Look at Pete’s Produce, they’ve done a lot of things and there are other companies out there, like Sunflower Markets is looking at some different locations.

SCB: Are these groceries coming out of Chicago or other parts of the country?

Frances Spencer: Different parts of the country.

SCB: How many new concepts or new grocery retailers have come into Chicago since you started this program?

Frances Spencer: Well, since the grocery expo, where we had 150 people there — we invited all of the grocery store executives and all of the independent owners from Chicago and seven Midwestern states, as well as another 46 companies from other parts of the countries, such as Wild Oats and Zabar. We had a presentation on the predecessor to the “Stranded on the Food Desert” research. We moved into a session where we actually took one of the 50 sites that we have and showed what it would cost to build there. We can do that with every site that somebody brings to us, show exactly what your cost benefit is going to be to be able to go into that store. We’re working with a quite a few people as a result of that [presentation].

Greg Dorman and Jay Gitles of Seyfarth Shaw.

Aldi’s has come up with a new and improved concept; they are looking at several sites in the city. Food For Less is still looking. Sunflower Markets, which is a super value concept, is now starting to look for additional sites. And Pete’s Market, they get it, and they’ve gone into a lot of our areas, which is good, because they are an independent and they have shown that it can be done.

We also enacted legislation last September, which says that if you are a grocery store or drug store, you can no longer have a restrictive covenant in your lease or in your sale of property that says that in perpetuity it can not be another grocery store. They now have in legislation that if you are abandoning a grocery store and going to build in the same area and staying in the same market, you will have up to 3 years where the existing site can remain empty or you can hold it for a different type of retailer. If you are completely leaving the area, you can only hold it for 1 year.

Jerome Ferstman, Forest City, and Donna Low Harwood of Gallant Construction.

Jerome Ferstman: I understand that there is some legislation that is going to be introduced in counsel putting a limitation on the size of big box retail development in the city in terms of this whole notion of wage and benefits. There was a decision yesterday in Maryland overturning that kind of legislation. I can’t quite get a handle on what’s happening, but it sounds like it goes contrary, in many respects, to the efforts to capture sales tax revenue within the city and will kind of continue to force it out into the suburbs.

[Editor’s Note: Chicago’s City Council passed the big box living wage ordinance on July 26th, a few days after our roundtable. At our roundtable, there was extensive discussion of the ordinance, which we have omitted since its passing. See Publisher’s Letter on p. 2 for more details.]

SCB: Todd Caruso, you travel through the Midwest and East — what are you seeing in the city of Chicago that is a little different than elsewhere?

Todd Caruso and Rick Filler.

Todd Caruso: When I look at our business, both nationally and here in Chicago, I continue to be intrigued and amazed at how resilient we are in general, as an industry. You look at rising interest rates, you look at rising energy costs — and granted, the consumer confidence index has been a little bit like a roller coaster, but I haven’t really heard of a slow down on the number of openings that retailers are talking about as far as their expansion plans going forward, and the retail expansion is the thing that drives our business. I don’t mean to suggest that that’s going to go on forever. I do think that we’re probably at a point of stabilizing right now, and if I had to predict for the next couple of years, I think we’re going to see a decline.

In Chicago, we do a report within CBRE that tracks all of the planned and under construction progress in metropolitan Chicago, and for the past 3 or 4 years, the amount of square footage delivered on an annual basis has changed from 7 million to 10 million square feet. We are tracking right now over 100 projects that are either planned or under construction that are north of 50,000 square feet in Chicagoland. What has changed is that, in the past, we used to have pockets of development; I’ve never seen it this diverse before. You look north and you have Oliver McMillan with Lindenhurst Village Green; you look south and you have Forest City; you go west and areas like Cedar Grove, Woodstock and Yorkville contemplating a lot of additional square footage, areas that are infill areas. Who’d have thought that in Long Grove, which may be one of the best examples of an anti-growth community, you have three projects that are planned or under construction in the downtown area? The city south, obviously with Archon’s project in Chatham and the things that Rick [Filler] is doing and Ross [Glickman] with Urban now down in northwest Indiana. It’s really all over the map and it’s pretty exciting. I’m confident that the majority of that stuff is going to be delivered.

As I travel throughout the eastern U.S. and I walk into these ICSC functions and go in these developer booths, I have never seen so many projects north of 500,000 square feet that are part of master planned communities. I am a little reticent to think that everything is going to be delivered and we are going to maintain our equilibrium. Something we should really watch is the private equity firms getting into our business. There are a lot of them that are there for the pure arbitrage play; they want to extract the value of the real estate.

SCB: Marlon [Stone], what can you tell us about retailers’ expansion plans?

Marlon Stone: I think Todd made a great point. You see now more than ever private equity gobbling up retail entities, and while they know a balance sheet, they don’t know site selection, they don’t know merchandising. As a result, instead of dealing with what had been historically a real seasoned, trained real estate site selector, you have Ivy League accountant types that slow the process down. I work 12 states and Chicago is the greatest MSA within the Midwest. There is tremendous balance in this town, both urban and suburban. In Chicago, you have people that come in on their first wave of a big box rollout and the city is now in the forefront of those plans. I can attribute that to density, disposable income and employment. The tenants we represent all want representation in the city. It used to be, if you looked 15 years ago, grocery and drugstores always located in the city. They knew they had to be there to survive. But now, you see much more diversity in fashion, shoes, boutique, and children’s wear. People are moving and migrating into this major metropolitan area because of commuting cost and gasoline, so I think you’ll see continued inward migration of retailers and people into the city and more regional and sub-regional nodes get merchandise.

Bruce Kaplan: That’s the thing that seems to be having the most incredibly powerful impact on the central area of Chicago. Fifteen years ago, if you look at Chicago, the downtown area had some population, but it wasn’t very close in. Nobody was living in the Loop and very few people were living within walking distance of the Loop. Streeterville has literally doubled in population in the last 10 years. The area just west of the Loop has gone from zero to somewhere in the neighborhood of 35,000 or 45,000 people last time I looked. There has been a huge explosion in the South Loop; if you haven’t looked at it in the last 5 years, you wouldn’t recognize it. And I think that is going to have an enormous impact in what actually goes on in the Loop proper. Ten years ago, you could shoot a cannon down a street on a Saturday here and hit no one. But now, you’re seeing Marshall Field’s open on the weekends and you’re seeing people actually doing serious shopping in the Loop and you’re seeing other department stores open on the weekend. And not withstanding The Mills Corporation’s tenuous financial condition, I think Block 37 is going forward; there’s an awfully big hole in the ground now. It’s going to have an enormous impact.

SCB: Bruce, do you want to talk about your Magnificent Mile survey you did this year?

Bruce Kaplan: We survey State Street, Wabash and North Michigan Avenue; we do each one every 6 months. North Michigan Avenue is really quite interesting; notwithstanding one project, it’s somewhat troubled and has probably, the majority of the vacancy on North Michigan Avenue. It’s a situation where we literally get calls every day of the week from someone saying, ‘Can you find us 5,000 or 6,000 square feet or 3,000 square feet on the street?’ For that reason, as my friend Mr. Julmy will testify, the rates have just exploded. The reality is that we could probably use 10 percent more inventory on the street than exists.

SCB: What are the rates?

Bruce Kaplan: I would have to say that if you had 2,000 square feet of nice space at grade level on North Michigan Avenue, you could get $350 per square foot without batting an eye.

SCB: Do the stores make money?

Camille Julmy: Some make a lot of money. There is a tremendous amount of volume that some of those stores actually produce.

Bruce Kaplan: Camille, there might be one or two. I imagine Cartier makes a few dollars, but I can’t imagine some of them are making money, or anyone else at the kind of rents they’re paying. But you did the deals.

Camille Julmy: I know the numbers, but I can’t disclose them. All in all, the tenants are doing extremely well. There are a few that clearly have the locations because they want to be on Michigan Avenue, there is no question about that. You probably know the ones. But others that are doing a very good volume.

Bruce Kaplan: But here’s the thing, a lot of these leases on North Michigan Avenue are locked in for years and years and years. There are people at street level on North Michigan Avenue with rents for $75 per square foot that go back a decade and a half or more. I would imagine that they are making money. But I have a difficult time imagining any one walking in at $350 a square foot, leasing 3,000 or 4,000 or 5,000 square feet — and tenants even admit to me when I talk to them that their intent is for image for their brand and not necessarily to turn an operating profit at the store level.

Camille Julmy: I concede that there are a number of tenants like that, clearly. Michigan Avenue is one of the great avenues of the world. One of the things that the Greater North Michigan Avenue Association is doing is a magnificent campaign that will promote the avenue as one of the great avenues of the world. In the next few months, you are going to see a real campaign that will be selling and branding Michigan Avenue. That will make it better for everyone, including the tenants, the hotels, the problems with the office tenants and the office vacancy on Michigan Avenue.

The big name stores want to be there, they want to have exposure, and it has the potential of getting even better. I mean, from a rates point of view, we are still way below the best cities in the world. We have a lot of people coming back into the city to live within walking distance of Michigan Avenue in Streeterville, Lakeshore East, River North. You have thousands of people who are basically becoming customers because they can walk to all those stores. And if you talk to the general manager of Nordstrom’s or whatever, he will tell you that they know these buildings are being built just two or three blocks away in River North and volume is doing better and better. Certainly, Millennium Park is attracting a ton of tourism.

Bruce Kaplan: Camille brings up a great point about Millennium Park. The last count I saw was 6 million visitors projected for this year, and I think that’s going to go up. It’s spectacular if you haven’t seen it; it’s amazing. I believe, with the strength of the Art Institute and Millennium Park now — two enormous tourist attractions — I believe the strength of Michigan Avenue will finally traverse the river and continue down all the way probably to Adams Street. We’re already seeing an exponential rise in rental rates on the stores at street level running south of the Chicago River down to Adams Street. Everybody wants to take space there all of the sudden.

James Kaplan of the James Kaplan Company and Jeff Howard of Inland Real Estate Corporation.

State Street is also going crazy. We just handled the conversion of the Toys ‘R’ Us project [10 S. State Street], where everything was duplex retail space. We wound up with three tenants, Urban Outfitters in roughly 20,000 square feet; we did a 30,000-square-foot Office Depot store; and Annie Sez, which is an East Coast, nice off-price operation, in about 20,000 square feet. Remarkable, though, was the number of 2,000- and 4,000- and 5,000-square-foot tenants that wanted this ground-floor space. They were making unsolicited offers of $75 or $85 per square foot, which are shocking numbers for State Street. I think that bodes extremely well what’s going to happen in the heart of Chicago. When the mayor arranged the pedestrian mall some years ago, that was probably the smartest move that ever took place for State Street. You can literally feel the vitality and you can see changes on a day-by-day basis as you walk down State Street.

I think State Street is at about a 4 percent vacancy and, while it won’t be competition for Michigan Avenue, but it might rival Michigan Avenue in the sense that it’s going to be another great retail corridor in our central business district.

SCB: Is there an impact from the change of Marshall Field’s name to Macy’s?

Bruce Kaplan: You’re seeing a lot of backlash at the grass roots level. If you stop a person on the street, they are really not happy about it. I am not from Chicago, although I moved here in 1977, but people in this city regard Marshall Fields as proprietary; they really believe Marshall Fields is part of their culture. And to think that people can change the name from Marshall Fields to Macy’s is tantamount to going to New York City and telling a New Yorker, ‘We’re changing the name of the New York Yankees to the Vikings.’

Camille Julmy: I think it is going to happen just like that. If they have good merchandise and good promotion, they are going to bring a lot of people.

SCB: There have been a lot of exciting deals in downtown Chicago, what’s it like for a tenant to enter the market? Ed, do you want to talk about that?

(left to right) Ed Zifkin, Marlon Stone and Jerry France.

Ed Zifkin: The challenge for a lot of retailers coming into the market is that it’s a fully occupied market in almost every level. There is a lot of competition for the type of locations that people desire. I think that that’s been going on for some time. Every one of these people wants this site in this market and you have 10 people competing for it. So, that’s driving prices up and it’s bringing a lot of new development into some markets. If you look at what’s happening in Oak Brook, developers really stand to benefit as a result of this demand for exposure along that corridor. They’re taking down perfectly good office buildings in order to build lifestyle centers, and I think that that type of redevelopment is going to continue to occur as long as that demand continues.

SCB: Camille [Julmy], what’s happening with MetraMarket?

Camille Julmy: We are ready to go. We have the two leases, French Market and CVS/pharmacy; we are very close to signing one or two others. We have a great corner for a restaurant, maybe 5,000 to 7,000 square feet. All of the restaurants in that area are doing just fine and we think that, with the office and residential demographic, it’s a great location. By next year, it will be close to opening.

SCB: Are there any other projects in Chicago?

Marlon Stone: Katz & Associates represents the ownership group that is redeveloping the former Fannie Mae building in the West Loop. That is an area that has significant pent-up demand, tremendous exposure to the Eisenhower Expressway, and we are going to make some major announcements in the next 60 to 90 days. And it’s not just new retail, it’s retailers that are going to announce their first store in Chicago, which will make it unique. Most retailers say, ‘You’re a mile from Michigan Avenue.’ Or ‘You’re a mile and a half from Lakeview,’ but because of the density and the drive time — it can take 25 minutes to drive a mile and a half in this town. What would traditionally be stigmatized as a neighborhood draw can now pull regional retail there. And that’s simply a function of road network density.

Bruce Kaplan: One of the core issues is parking. A lot of retailers with the suburban mentality look within the Loop and wonder where the consumers will park. Marlon, you are outside the core area, your land costs have to be a fraction of what they are downtown. I am curious of what you have to do for retailers parking-wise?

Marlon Stone: We have a 3-to-1 ratio, which, for the city, is very high. We are also going to have deck parking and I have yet to have any retailer reject the site on the basis of parking.

James Schutter of M&J Wilkow and Frances Spencer of the city of Chicago.

James Schutter: Living in the South Loop and [going to the West Loop area] is a short commute. I think you will actually draw a great deal of residential over to that area when you bring in the tenants that are standing by at the moment.

Marlon Stone: River Forest is under-retailed and there is very limited land. And the volume forecast has come back from some very, very astute retailers that have an upper middle-income offering. An Oak Park resident is not going south to North Riverside. They either have to go all the way to Oak Brook, or to Michigan Avenue or State Street. And we are picking them up within 5 minutes on the Eisenhower, so I think people are going to take to that location faster than one might initially realize. Also, when we first started marketing this project, we discovered that there were many young professional women, 25 to 34, newly married or single but with disposable income, and they are lived in the West Loop. So, we have a very strong platform for who we would merchandise to. The project is well on its way.

SCB: Donna, would you like to comment on what new retailers may be entering the Chicago market?

Donna Low Harwood: I wanted to comment on a couple of the things I’ve heard this morning. First of all, from a general contracting standpoint, what the city of Chicago has done for permitting is wonderful and I would encourage any retailer to enter the market because it is a lot easier than it used to be.

The second thing, regarding what Todd [Caruso] said, there is such a variety of locations being built out right now. Right now, we are building in Hanover Park, Oak Forest, Carpentersville, Sugar Grove, Hoffman Estates, Rockford, Naperville, Lake Zurich, Algonquin, Lombard, Vernon Hills, Evanston, Elgin and, of course, Chicago. And that’s very unusual, we are usually more focused on one area or another. The people we are working with on a multi-unit level would be Fifth Third Bank and Chase Bank, which are both looking for locations. We are working with Dmyterko & Wright on a couple of Advance Auto locations; I know that Advance Auto is working with a couple of developers. Barnes & Noble is still growing here in Chicago; Office Depot has a lot of projects in Chicago and is looking at more. Ulta Cosmetics has four projects going right now. Harlem Furniture is looking for five or six spaces. LA Fitness is new to Chicago; we are building one right now in Evanston and one in Hanover Park. They are looking for several more locations, and those are very large spaces. Guitar Center just built out another project here in Chicago. That’s just the people we are working with. Other active retailers I’ve also seen include Ann Taylor, Levi’s, Foot Action; they’re all looking for spaces. New York & Co. is building here in Chicago.

Restaurant building in Chicago is holding its own because of things we have talked about here today, whether it’s through creating locations for restaurants on outlot pads. Restaurants like The Capital Grille, Kona Grill, Claim Jumper, Longhorn Steakhouse, which by the way, is looking for several locations in Chicago, are starting to come to the area. Chicago restaurateurs that have expansion plans this year include Flat Top Grill, Dunkin’ brands, Pompei restaurants, Potbelly Sandwich Works, Yum! Brands; they are still busy.

Other retailers still looking include Whole Foods, Staples, Albertson’s, Red Robin, Steve & Barry’s University Sportswear, Marshalls HomeGoods, Ethan Allen, Bank of America, National Tire & Battery, JC Penney, ING Direct. ING Direct is a financial insurance banking; it’s a café with insurance and banking capabilities. There will only be one location; they currently have three locations open. 24-Hour Fitness is trying to work its way up to this area; they are all the way up to St. Louis now and they will be hitting Chicago soon. From my perspective, there is a whole lot going on in Chicago and the suburbs. By the end of August, we will have made our sales for the year, so it’s been quite a year.

SCB: Steve [Smith], do you want to add any retailers to that list?

Steve Smith of Leopardo Construction and Camille Julmy of U.S. Equities Realty.

Steve Smith: I think if you add Trader Joe’s, National City, Washington Mutual and CVS/pharmacy, you’ve covered the gamut of new retailers. We are seeing the same growth. If you look north or south, Highway 47 out west, we are doing developments out there, even crossing the line into Kenosha and Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin. Certainly New Lenox has had a lot of activity. We’re just seeing a well-rounded market, where there is work everywhere. There are infill opportunities; we are working on a 300,000-square-foot center. It’s been the best market we’ve ever been in. We hit our goal for the year about 3 months ago in terms of volume and the number of projects. It’s been an outstanding market.

Ross Glickman of Urban Retail Properties and Dave Bossy of Mid-America Development Partners.

SCB: Let’s move out to the suburbs now. Dave, I know you have a lot of projects underway — can you talk about some of your developments?

Dave Bossy: Development in Chicago — in the city and the suburbs — is unbelievable. On average, there are 5 million square feet of retail development per year for about the past 20 years. If you look at 2006, 2007 and 2008, just the pipeline of deals that are announced, we have 30 million square feet planned in the next 3 years. We’re showing 8 million square feet in ’06, 14 million in ’07, and then 8 million in ’08. The activity is lead by Wal-Mart with 22 stores, and then The Home Depot, Jewel, Menards and Target all with 10 stores in that 3-year pipeline. There is just terrific, terrific growth; the activity is unparalleled in my 25-year history here in Chicago.

SCB: Rick [Filler], do you want to take over and talk about your projects?

Rick Filler of Harlem Irving Companies and Marlone Stone of Katz & Associates.

Rick Filler: What I’m finding is that in the tertiary markets like Yorkville, which is quickly becoming a secondary market, we can actually go out and develop in cornfields. In the secondary markets, I’m finding that the opportunities are actually lying in properties that have been sitting there and being outpaced because there were better locations on land that was available.

A project that we recently worked on, actually with Greg Dorman, who is representing The Home Depot, in Alsip, Illinois, was actually a clay pit and was filled in over the years with 18 feet of fill. It was never developed because there was never an opportunity. Now, it’s one of the only opportunities and our challenge is to take care of the methane gas and geotechnical problems with that property. We are in the process of closing on that property.

In the village of Willowbrook, we are doing a town center. Many developers over the last 15 years have tried to complete this development, and it’s only taken us 4 years. We will break ground next month. The challenges in that project were geotechnical, wetlands, land diversity — having to assemble the property — and we are closing on that property next month also.

I look at a lot of challenges and you hear down in Oak Brook about [developers] knocking down office buildings, knocking down what you would think would be a productive property, to make it more productive with retail in the secondary markets. It’s nice to go out to Yorkville and finally be in a cornfield and all we have to worry about is buying the farmer’s crop to be able to break ground this year.

Marlon Stone: Are you finding that you have to get out to those farm lands earlier than you would have 10 years ago and take down larger tracts of land?

Rick Filler: I think that the change that occurred is that retail used to follow housing, and for the first time, you are finding that retail is looking at the projection of housing. And Dave [Bossy]’s group did a phenomenal job in Yorkville saying to the marketplace, ‘This is what’s going to happen in the next 5 to 10 years.’ And the retailers see that. If that’s the projection and Kendall County is the third fastest growing county in the United States, then we better band together and create critical mass. That’s a critical mass with 1 million square feet, so we don’t just have to depend on the Yorkville marketplace, which is 10,000 people, but rely on a large marketplace. Once again, Dave’s group did a phenomenal job on researching how far out we can pull in to create that critical mass and do something special there. We are basically taking your basic Home Depot, Target, Kohl’s and all the junior boxes, putting them in the background, and then creating a specialty retail street within that parking lot, which will over time be phased in to attract more of a lifestyle experience for that area.

SCB: Mike Jaffe, do you want to talk about the Arboretum?

Michael Jaffe of the Jaffe Companies and James Schutter.

Michael Jaffe: The Arboretum of South Barrington, a partnership with RREEF, is the most exciting project I have worked on as I celebrate my 25th anniversary. Having said that, if you would have said to me that South Barrington and Hoffman Estates would be referred to as an infill location even a few years ago, it would have struck me as odd. If I can talk about the center’s trade area, the activity on the former Copper Creek music venue, which is the Sears Holding Corp. campus, has been tremendous. We are now seeing the recent opening of a 400,000-square-foot shopping center across the street anchored by a brand new Target, Cost Plus and others, as well as Claim Jumpers Restaurant, one of three in the Chicago area. Cabela’s is going in right behind that project with a 250,000-square-foot store. As some of you know, Cabela’s is a leading tourist attraction in a number of the states in which they operate. The site is considered awfully close to Chicago for a typical Cabela’s. And finally, the Sears Centre is the new arena that will seat between 11,000 and 12,000 people. They have 130 dates already booked for the first year; they open in the fall. So, that’s just in the area.

Ed Zifkin of Zifkin Realty & Development and Jerry France, publisher of Shopping Center Business and Heartland Real Estate Business.

We continue to pre-lease our project [The Arboretum] and intend to break ground this year. The project will roughly be 625,000 to 650,000 square feet, with a very strong apparel base. Zifkin has done a great job bringing the better restaurants to the table; we’d rather not name any yet, but they will be high-dollar, full-service restaurants.

As far as our project is concerned, it’s emerging as the next high-end retail destination along with Forest City’s project. We had a great ICSC convention, the leading tenants Chico’s, Ann Taylor Loft, J.Crew and others gave commitments, as well as Chicago’s first Our House store. In addition, we are getting approached just recently by two high-end movie theaters. Not your traditional stadium-seating, multi-screen guys, but theaters that are oriented to the 35- to 60-year-old affluent movie-goer that doesn’t like going to multi-screen megaplexes.

SCB: Over the years, we have talked about the downtown areas of Chicago’s suburbs and the tremendous amount of redevelopment of these downtown areas — is that moving into these newer suburbs?

Michael Jaffe: Yes, there is a tremendous amount of activity in core areas near train stations. Certainly, downtown Highland Park has continued to grow; rents have continued to grow; sales have continued to grow. Others are looking hard at it. As it turns out, there is a likelihood that there will be an additional train station in the south suburbs in New Lenox and other places further out. They are talking about a train station in Hoffman Estates.

SCB: George [Redfearn], do you want to comment on that and on your new project in Des Plaines?

George Redfearn of Tucker Development Corporation.

George Redfearn: Metropolitan Square, the project we did with Joseph Freed and Associates, is a mixed-use project. We are just finishing construction and are fairly well through leasing. It has 140 condos, 100,000 square feet of retail and approximately 20,000 square feet of office, with structure parking. The success of that came from Des Plaines being under-retailed. There was a good density of residential around that site. With the cooperation of the city, we put together a site that brought what the community wanted — we brought the supermarket and retail. The restaurants, such as Panera Bread and Cheeseburger In Paradise, bring in that daytime and evening pedestrian traffic and there is a whole new vitality to what is this new downtown in Des Plaines. That kind of sold us on mixed-use projects; that’s really our first true mixed-use project. You can’t go into a downtown area in the suburbs now and not see redevelopment going on.

SCB: Jerome [Ferstman], do you want to talk about Forest City’s project and how you’re doing with that?

Jerome Ferstman: Bolingbrook Promenade has become a phenomenal undertaking for us. The leasing is going splendidly; we’re getting a strong response. We are going to begin Phase IV; at completion, that will bring the entire project to about 1.5 million square feet. It’s kind of a nice feeling to drive out there and think about a couple of years ago, when I first saw it, it was just soybean fields.

I guess it’s no secret now that we are active with a new project in New Lenox. I am not sure how of size of the project; we are in the early stages. It’s certainly several years off.

SCB: Greg, you’re representing a lot of retailers? What are you seeing?

Gregory Kirsch: From my perspective, I primarily represent tenants, and I have been very fortunate over the last few years to work with FedEx/Kinko’s, who went through a real long dry spell prior to the acquisition by FedEx. Since about March, we have been on a tear, and we are likely to open between 35 and 45 new stores in ’07. So, this will be a significant expansion for them and will likely double the number of total units in this market in the next 4 to 5 years. They’ve announced a 2,500-store, 5-year national expansion strategy. We’re at the forefront of that, marketing a different concept, which is a smaller, under-2,000-square-foot concept. So far, it has been well received. The only example so far in this market is Westchester.

In addition, I represent Starbucks Coffee in the northern, western and southwestern suburbs, and we’re doing phenomenal. Though I don’t want to speculate, I feel they will probably double the number of units in the next 5 to 10 years.

Last year at this roundtable, I predicted that Bucktown would eclipse Armitage as the new hot retail corridor. The area is now ringing up $35 rents; we have a listing on Dayton Avenue right now for $55 net just north of North Avenue. The average on Milwaukee south of North Avenue is hitting $40; Urban Outfitters recently opened, as did G-Star and Scoop NYC. So, take a look at Bucktown; it continues to be our version of SoHo. Next year, I think you’ll see rents in the mid-$50s, pushing $60.

SCB: How is the financial market here in Chicago?

James Turner of LaSalle Bank.

James Turner: It’s an unusual time. Rates continue to rise, but cap rates continue to fall, and structure, what’s left of it in the banking community, is deteriorating every moment. If you were coming out of the ground a few years ago, we had a little strength when we were negotiating. You had to bring signed leases, or you would be at a 1-to-1 ratio, probably 50 or 60 percent leased before we would even talk to you. Now, if you get a LOI from an anchor tenant that may take second-floor space at $30 per square foot, we’re willing to work. Land used to be 50 percent, now land is 90 percent of what the retail value is after you carve up the outlots and sell the bank pads that you don’t even have a tenant for at a 5.5 percent cap rate. It’s a good time to be a borrower; we are clearly in a very competitive market from the banking perspective. There are a lot of people out there providing capital, not only the banks, but also other institutions. And if you are a long-term owner, you don’t want to sell for a 5.5 percent cap, which is less than treasuries right now, you can always go to the conduit market and get full dollars, 7 to 10 years interest-only and a 30-year amortization after that. When you are in an interest-rate environment that is rising, there are a lot of issues that can happen out there. We haven’t had a major bankruptcy in retail in 4 or 5 years. Where it used to be as a banker, we’d wait until February and see who didn’t make their numbers, who was filing and who was closing stores. That used to be a given for us and it hasn’t happened in a while.

I just find this to be a very volatile time; people are buying real estate without really understanding the risk associated with real estate. We are still very bullish with the right clients and the right projects. However, we are very concerned with some of the dynamics that are going on with the rising interest rate environment and a lot of capital chasing deals.

Jeff Howard: We may not have a lot of bankruptcies in retail right now, but that doesn’t mean everything is great with the world. I probably have 400,000 square feet of vacant space in our portfolio, yet I have 1.2 million square feet of available space. That’s from retailers calling and saying, ‘I’m not making my numbers here. Can you find me a replacement tenant? I have 5 years of term left.’ That’s probably twice as much of my business as my vacancies. There are a lot of retailers out there that are breathing slowly.

James Schutter of M&J Wilkow.

James Schutter: We’ve been talking about all the growth that’s been going on in all these areas — it is hurting some of the existing trade areas somewhat. I am seeing some weakness there. We have a center, a Kmart-anchored center in front of the Louis Joliet Mall, and we just completed a Harlem Furniture lease there. It’s a 25,000-square-foot box, and 2 years ago, I had tenants calling me all the time for the space. But everything has moved to competing trade areas around there on Route 59, Black Road and Weber Road, which have weakened our trade area. And I think you will see that in some of the older, existing regional trade areas.

SCB: Jeff [Howard], you’re active in many markets, including Chicago. How does your company view Chicago?

James Kaplan, Jeff Howard and CB Richard Ellis’ Todd Caruso.

Jeff Howard: My region is primarily Chicago; we have 50 million square feet of space here in the Midwest. We think that Chicago is terrific. We are about 97 percent occupied and we have space with leases drafted today that we didn’t think 5 years we would ever lease. We really see pressure on spaces that have been on the market a long time. And that’s exciting, we have maybe 500,000 square feet of space this year that we didn’t think we would lease. There is a next tier of retailers coming to Chicago that really feed off of a difficult economy. We have been approached by Dollar Tree with its new 25,000-square-foot stores that are coming around as a result of its acquisition of Sav-A-Lot, and they intend to open a lot of stores. And that is a store that will absolutely thrive in a difficult economy.

SCB: Ross, what are your thoughts on the movement of retail development away from traditional enclosed malls?

Ross Glickman and Dave Bossy.

Ross Glickman: I’ll just give you an example. We opened Branson Landing [in Branson, Missouri] last month, which consists of a convention center totaling 250,000 square feet; two Hilton hotels, one of which is boutique; 300 townhome/condo units; 300,000 square feet of retail anchored by a Bass Pro Shops and a Belk department store. We have two arenas, one public and another owned by Bass Pro; an entertainment component, sitting all around a town square with an amphitheater; and structured parking. All these asset classes constitute, for the lack of a better word, a power town — and it works. Branson is a unique animal; it has an indigenous population of 6,000 residents, but it explodes to 8 million 10 months of the year. So every week, you have a new audience.

I guess the moral here is that there are opportunities in probably a lot of unlikely, expensive places in this country that draw destination shopping; and these are the standard retailers: Ann Taylor Loft, Chico’s, White House|Black Market. These are the typical, run-of-the-mill usual suspects that really are looking for opportunities strategically and very selectively. So, we see this model proliferating itself on a very strategic and well thought-out basis, in opportunities that really control marketplace and don’t have a lot of competition.



©2006 France Publications, Inc. Duplication or reproduction of this article not permitted without authorization from France Publications, Inc. For information on reprints of this article contact Barbara Sherer at (630) 554-6054.

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